Will Taiwan Be Next After Ukraine? No, But Semiconductors Are At Risk.

 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has naturally led to speculation about a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. What both invasions would have in common is a perception of weakness on the part of Joe Biden and the United States.

The way you deter war is through strength, not weakness. After the U.S. surrender and chaotic exit in Afghanistan, the world realized that Biden was weak and his team was incompetent.

Putin and Russia raced to take advantage of that in Ukraine. Will Taiwan be next?

Probably not, according to this article. I agree.

Biden’s weakness may be something the two situations have in common, but there are critical differences. Ukraine was a land invasion by Russia, which has a border with the target. Taiwan would be a massive amphibious invasion across the Taiwan Strait.

China has no prior experience in amphibious warfare and such invasions are extremely difficult to execute. Just look at D-Day, Inchon, Iwo Jima, and Okinawa if you want to see how difficult they are to plan, carry out and win.

The U.S. does not have a formal treaty with Taiwan, but policymakers expect that the U.S. Seventh Fleet would intervene to at least slow any Chinese attack. And Taiwan has a far more capable and well-equipped military than Ukraine.

That said, an invasion cannot be ruled out. The main economic impact would be in semiconductors. Taiwan is the largest single source of semiconductors in the world, including the most sophisticated chips of the 5-nanometer design.

Taiwan is also working toward the production of 3-nanometer chips. China would love to capture that technology and the fabrication plants that go with it, but they won’t.

If an invasion began, Taiwan would destroy all of that capacity before the Chinese could get to it. If Taiwan didn’t, the U.S. would.

This is why Taiwan Semiconductor and Intel are building multi-billion dollar fabrication plants in the U.S. These will take several years to build, but when they’re done that new semiconductor capacity will be beyond the reach of the Chinese Communists.

This bird will have flown. Still, there’s a global semiconductor shortage today even without a war. Rumors of a war in the Taiwan Strait will just make matters worse.

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