The War in Ukraine Could Drag Into 2025

The war in Ukraine will be two years old next February. Those who expected a dramatic victory by Ukrainian forces have not only been disappointed, but they have had to face the reality that Ukraine is losing the war badly and that Ukraine itself will cease to exist as an independent country before long.

The delusions of the Ukraine supporters from Poland to Washington DC have had to confront the Russian way of war in which Russian forces move slowly and methodically while handling strategic considerations in a manner intended to secure victory. The best guide to the course of the war in Ukraine has always been the conduct of the former Soviet Union against Germany over the course of 1942-1945 during World War II.

Germany invaded Russia with over 4 million troops, massive armored brigades and 3 Army Groups consisting of multiple armies and scores of divisions each. Their initial success was astounding. They surrounded Leningrad (now St. Petersburg), captured Stalingrad (now Volgograd), and advanced to the outskirts of Moscow. Russian casualties were in the millions.

Then it all came undone. The Germans never captured Leningrad, although millions in the city died of starvation. They ran out of fuel and froze in their tracks before reaching Moscow.

The Russians recaptured Stalingrad in one of the most hard-fought battles in history. Even then, Germany still had millions of troops in the field and hopes of capturing the oil fields of the Caucasus.

It was only then that Russia’s hidden strength was revealed. After losing 5 million dead, Russia took the field with another 5 million troops. Their population was much larger than Germany’s as was their ability to mobilize new troops.

Russia had moved their factories east of Moscow and put the entire economy on a war footing with the ability to build new tanks, planes, and other weapons. Even then, Russia did not launch a major advance. Instead, they let the Germans exhaust themselves with fruitless new offensives.

The Russians would let the Germans advance in a salient, surround the salient and then annihilate the surrounded Germans all without an advance in the front lines. It was only when the Germans had no offensive power left that the Russians began a major advance, which destroyed the Germans, rolled through Poland, and then captured Berlin.

The same approach is being used in Ukraine. The Russians have held ground and allowed Ukrainian troops to advance, only to annihilate them with mines, missiles, drones and artillery.

Ukrainian losses are huge; Russian causalities, while significant, are relatively light. Russia is wearing out the Ukrainian forces through attrition. Only when there’s little or nothing left of Ukrainian fighting ability will Russia launch a major offensive that will take its forces to Kyiv.

At this stage, there’s little reason to negotiate with Ukraine, as reported here. The war will continue possibly until 2025 but the outcome of a Russian victory already seems determined.

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