The U.S. Is Sleepwalking Into A Nuclear War With Russia. Remove Biden Now.

No one wakes up in the morning and says, “What a nice day for a nuclear war. Let’s launch some missiles.”

That’s not how a nuclear war will happen if it ever does. Instead, experts who have studied the subject of nuclear warfighting since the 1950s (and I’ve personally studied their work since the late 1960s) all agree that the danger is not an out-of-the-blue decision to launch. The danger is escalation.

The adversaries will first go through a process of confrontation and gradual escalation to the point that one side or the other feels trapped with no way out except to use nuclear weapons. At that point, game theory is applied to infer that if your enemy is about to launch nuclear weapons against you, it’s in your interests to launch first.

That’s because suffering a first strike might make you incapable of launching a second strike in retaliation. The solution is to launch a first strike before the other side launches its first strike.

You can build a capability that will survive a first strike and launch a second-strike retaliation, but you cannot be sure it will work, and your adversary might have increased its first-strike capability, etc. The entire game-theoretic framework pushes both sides to a nuclear attack even though neither side wanted that.

The real answer is to avoid escalation in the first place. But, that precaution is often overlooked because leaders and their advisors lack the training in escalatory dynamics and game theory.

There’s little doubt we’re now at the most critical juncture in potential nuclear warfighting since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. Vladimir Putin has already warned that nuclear weapons are not off the table with regard to Ukraine. Now, according to this article, the Russian leadership has relocated to secure nuclear-proof bunkers in Western Siberia.

Putin gave many warnings that he would invade Ukraine if his demands for neutrality by Ukraine and a promise not to join NATO were not met. The demands were ignored, and the invasion went ahead. Now Putin is warning about nuclear weapons and acting accordingly.

Once again, the U.S. is not taking Putin seriously. The U.S. and NATO continue to escalate the war.

Escalation is the path that every nuclear war expert warns against. It’s a dangerous moment with uncertain outcomes. Investors should definitely increase allocations to cash and gold until the danger passes … if it does.

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