The Third-Party Challenge Refuses to Die

Most Americans do not take third-party challenges in presidential elections seriously. There’s a good reason for that. A typical third party in a presidential election gets 1% to 2% of the vote, wins no states, and does not change the outcome of the election.

While that’s true, 2024 may be the first year since 1992 when third parties really were an important factor. First of all, there are some exceptions to the general rule.

In 2016, Jill Stein and the Green Party got just enough votes in Wisconsin, about 1%, to tip that state away from Hillary Clinton toward Donald Trump; (Trump won Wisconsin by just 22,748 votes; Jill Stein got 31,072 votes).

In 1992, Ross Perot got 19% of the popular vote.

In 1968, George Wallace’s third party won five states.

In 1912, Teddy Roosevelt’s Bull Moose Party got more votes and won more states than the Republican Party with William Taft.

So, third parties do matter every so often. As reported in this article, 2024 may be shaping up to be one of those years.

The main third-party candidates so far are Jill Stein (Green Party), Cornel West, and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. In addition, there are two parties that have ballot access but have not yet selected candidates. These are the Libertarian Party and the No Labels Party.

No Labels started out with high hopes of getting Joe Manchin, Larry Hogan or perhaps Nikki Haley on their party line, but all have declined. No Labels has faded into not much of a factor at this point.

Jill Stein’s Green Party has excellent ballot access, but she is unlikely to gain more than perhaps 2% of the vote. That can still matter in close races.

Cornell West has not settled on a party yet and is having trouble getting on the ballot. RFK Jr. is on the ballot in a few states and is trying to get more, but time is running out. RFK Jr. is acting strategically, though. He’s targeting the swing states of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada among others. Just winning one of those states (or tipping it to Trump) can have a huge impact on the outcome.

The most interesting play will be if RFK Jr. becomes the nominee of the Libertarian Party. If that happens, he’ll have extensive ballot access, name recognition, and ample money all at once. The problem is that the “Austrian economics” wing of the Libertarian Party does not like RFK Jr.’s more progressive positions. They’d rather lose with a purist than win with a more pragmatic figure.

We’ll see how it plays out. Even if RFK Jr. and Jill Stein only manage to get, say, 2% each in a few key states, that may be enough to cost Biden the election. Investors need to pay attention to third parties this year. They may make all the difference.

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