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REPUBLICANS WORRY ABOUT TRUMP’S CHANCES. DEMOCRATS ARE MORE WORRIED
No one doubts that Joe Biden is the front-runner in the presidential campaign as of now. He’s ahead in the national polls. He’s ahead in the betting odds. He’s ahead in most of the battleground state polls. And, he’s the clear favorite among media pundits and newspaper opinion writers. Republicans feel like they’re on the ropes.
From the Democrat’s perspective, what could possibly go wrong? The answer is that a lot could go wrong.
Opinions are just opinions; they are not necessarily scientific. Betting odds are skewed by the weight of money, not by the number of bets. Polling odds are more skewed by bad sampling, bad turnout models and other systematic flaws. But, as reported in this article, there’s one thing that has Democrats troubled: they’ve seen this movie before.
At this stage of the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton was ahead in the national polls, ahead in the battleground state polls, ahead in the betting odds and the clear favorite of the media. In fact, Hillary’s leads in some categories were even bigger than Joe Biden’s leads today. In short, Hillary Clinton had every advantage that Biden has today and she still lost.
Will history repeat? There’s little reason to believe the polls are much more accurate today than they were in 2016. Some errors (such as educational attainment selection) have been addressed, but new errors (such as social desirability bias) have crept in.
Betting odds are skewed by big money from Wall Street, which has the worst forecasting record imaginable when it comes to politics (remember when all the big hedge fund managers thought Mitt Romney had it in the bag?).
This does not mean that Joe Biden will automatically lose, but he might. It’s too soon to bet your portfolio on a Biden win. Better to reduce volatility in your portfolio with more cash right now, and perhaps add some gold as the ultimate hedge against political risk and market disruption.
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