Putin Doesn’t Bluff

One of the persistent problems in intelligence analysis is what experts call “mirror imaging.” This is jargon for an analytic flaw in which the analyst assumes that his beliefs and preferences are shared by an adversary. Instead of looking at the adversary as he actually is, the analyst is looking in a mirror while assuming he is looking at the adversary.

This is an extremely dangerous flaw. You may be rational, but the Mullahs who rule Iran are not. You may believe that leaders want economic growth, but Communist Chinese leaders elevate the party over all other considerations including the well-being of their people. You may assume that Houthi rebels in Yemen want to avoid attacks by the U.S., but they don’t care – they live in caves anyway, so you can’t bomb them into the Stone Age because they’re already there.

Nowhere is this flaw more apparent today than in the U.S. intelligence analysis of Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation.

In 2008, President Bush said that Ukraine and Georgia should join NATO. A few months later, Putin invaded Georgia, annexed part of its territory, and destroyed Georgia’s chances of joining NATO.

In 2014, the U.S. backed a coup d’état in Ukraine that deposed a duly elected leader. Three months later, Putin annexed Crimea from Ukraine and made it part of the Russian Federation.

In 2021, NATO began formal processes to admit Ukraine as a member. In February 2022, Russia began a special military operation that has resulted in 500,000 dead Ukrainian soldiers. Ukraine’s chances of joining NATO are now zero.

In every case, U.S. analysts did not believe Putin would take the steps he did because they thought it might somehow weaken Putin or Russia. That’s mirror imaging at its worst.

The truth is Putin doesn’t bluff. When he says he will do something, he does. When he says he will react to some Western act, the reaction takes place.

The latest example concerns U.S. and G7 plans to steal over $300 billion in Russian assets held in Western banks and custodians. Putin said if the U.S. steals Russian assets, Russia will confiscate Western assets in Russia that are estimated to be even greater than the amount the U.S. wants to steal.

Just days after Biden signed legislation to authorize the theft of Russian assets, a Russian court ordered $440 million to be seized from JPMorgan. The escalation in the asset seizure war has begun. Putin will win in the end. It’s just one more example of Biden administration stupidity – and mirror imaging.

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