If You Shoot at The King, Don’t Miss

There’s an old expression in politics – if you shoot at the King, don’t miss.

The meaning is clear. If you are attempting to overthrow a ruler and you have some military or other backing on your side, make sure you kill the ruler on the first shot. If you miss, or if your plan otherwise goes awry, you can be certain the ruler will rally his forces and kill you.

There are many variations on this cliché. The struggle is not always violent; it can be political. But the meaning is the same. If you’re trying to push someone aside and you fail, you can be certain they will be back to bury you (at least metaphorically).

This article reports on a real world and totally violent example of this saying. Yevgeny Prigozhin was the leader of a private mercenary army in Russia called the Wagner Group.

Interestingly, Prigozhin started as a caterer and friend of Vladimir Putin. He managed to go from catering to large scale provisioning and logistical operations, and then from there to recruiting mercenaries (many of whom were released prisoners) until he ended up with a private army.

The friendship with Putin continued and Putin made good use of the Wagner Group in winning the Battle of Bakhmut in Ukraine on May 20, 2023. From there, events took a strange turn.

Prigozhin complained bitterly about a lack of support from the Russia Army General Staff and the Minister of Defense. In June 2023, he used his army to occupy the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, which is close to the Ukrainian border. From there, he launched a mutiny and began a march to Moscow with troops, artillery, and armor. Several Russian aircraft were shot down by the Wagner Group.

Finally, a truce was brokered by President Lukashenko of Belarus, the Wagner Group stood down, and Prigozhin was offered asylum in Belarus. After a two-month quiet period, the King struck back.

A small plane carrying Prigozhin and nine others crashed enroute to St. Petersburg from Moscow. Prigozhin was killed.

There are too many conspiracy theories about what happened to describe them all. The first speculation was that a missile shot down the plane, but there was no visual evidence of that. A second speculation was that a bomb was hidden onboard in a case of wine. That seems more likely than a missile but, again, we simply don’t know.

What we do know is that Prigozhin took aim at Putin, missed, and now Prigozhin is dead. The two-month hiatus between the mutiny and the plane crash reminds me of another saying among power players – Revenge is a dish best served cold.

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