Here’s A Perfect Example Of How Not To Fight A Pandemic

Just when you think politicians can’t get any dumber, one comes forward to lower the bar even more. This time it’s New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio in what is a familiar role for him as Chief Clown.

De Blasio has announced that New York City may need to go back to “a full shutdown” in the coming weeks. This full shutdown threat comes on top of the recent ban on indoor dining in New York and other extreme lockdown measures that constitute a partial shutdown; (although, don’t try telling that to restaurant owners; they’re going out of business by the tens of thousands).

The reason for these new lockdowns has to do with increased COVID infection caseloads and fatalities. The new wave of the pandemic is a real problem and tragic in many cases. The problem is that lockdowns don’t work to stop the spread of the disease.

Studies have been conducted in over 30 countries around the world and other studies have compared results in the 50 states of the U.S. Some had extreme lockdowns, some had moderate or partial lockdowns, and some such as South Dakota had no mandatory lockdown but depended on voluntary decisions by its citizens.

The studies showed that all countries and states had similar experiences with the virus independent of lockdown policies. In other words, lockdowns don’t work.

Measures that do work to halt the spread of the virus and which cost very little are hand washing, wearing masks, social distancing, and banning some large venue events like conventions and concerts. That’s it. You get all of the benefits of extreme lockdowns at a small fraction of the cost. There is simply no need to close restaurants, bars, salons, boutiques, and other small businesses, and there’s no medical benefit from it.

The evidence shows that waves of coronavirus last about eight-to-ten weeks in each locality where they arise. The caseload increase peaks after about four weeks and fades from there, albeit from a high level. Lockdowns do nothing to change this dynamic.

So, why do politicians push lockdowns? The reason is they don’t know what they’re doing but have to be seen to be doing something, so they push the lockdown button to appear decisive.

Lockdowns don’t stop the virus but they do stop the economy in its tracks. A recession in the first quarter of 2021 seems a near certainty as a result of this political blindness. The stock market has not yet adjusted to that reality. The adjustment is coming soon.

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