Dems Say It’s Time for Biden To Go

Have you seen the latest presidential election polls? This poll is highly unusual in two respects.

In the first place, it’s conducted by the New York Times, which is notoriously progressive and anti-Trump. The second unusual feature is that Trump is crushing Biden! Before we get to the good parts, a few disclaimers are in order. Polls are subject to margins of error, usually 2% to 3% depending on how many individuals were polled.

Polls are snapshots, not forecasts. They tell you something about where things stand today but you cannot rely on them to tell you where things will be on election day 2024. We all know a week is a lifetime in politics. That may be a cliché but it’s true.

OK, with that out of the way, what’s the news?

Trump is beating Biden by significant margins in five of the six most important swing states. Trump is ahead by 6 points in Georgia, 5 points in Arizona, 4 points in Pennsylvania, 5 points in Michigan, and 10 points in Nevada.

Those margins are huge. Most recent presidential elections have been won by less than 1% margins in a set of swing states. Leads of 5 to 10 percent are well outside the margin of error and quite difficult to reverse once voters make up their minds. The only state where Trump trailed was Wisconsin where he was 2 points behind, but that difference is inside the margin of error, so Trump has a shot at Wisconsin as well.

It’s important to understand that presidential elections are not national elections. They go state-by-state. You win the election by getting 270 (or more) electoral votes from a set of states.

About 40 of the 50 states are not worth following because we already know the outcome. California, New York, Illinois, and Hawaii will all go for Biden. Alabama, Mississippi, Ohio, and Florida will all go for Trump.

The ten states that will decide the election are: New Hampshire, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia. You don’t have to win all ten. You probably just need to win five.

And you don’t have to win big. A 1% margin will do nicely. And you don’t even have to get over 50% of the vote to win a state if a third-party is taking, say, 5% of the total vote. That’s how close the U.S. election process has become (and why it’s easy to tip the election by rigging in just a few places).

But Trump’s margins in this poll are not 1%; they’re 4% or higher. If Trump won the five states where he’s ahead in this poll plus the states he won in 2020, he’d have a landslide victory with over 300 electoral votes.

Democrats are losing their minds over these results. They’re speaking openly about Biden announcing he won’t run. If they plan to get Biden to drop out, they’d better hurry up.

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