Chairman Xi May Be Delusional, But The Premier Of China Knows The Score.

Chinese governance is complicated and not well understood by most western observers. Still, it’s not difficult to explain.

There are two parallel governance structures organized as top-down silos. These parallel structures duplicate every important function at every level with one critical difference.

The first silo is what we would consider state power. This consists of a Premier of the country, the provincial governors, city mayors, local administrators, and other bureaucrats. It’s not a democratic system, but it’s functionally the same as the system of president, governors, and mayors we have in the United States.

The second silo is the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The head of the CCP is the General Secretary, currently Xi Jinping. He governs through a small political bureau of 25 members called the Politburo. Inside the Politburo is a core governing group of 7 members known as the Standing Committee.

Below these officials are Party Secretaries of major cities and regions such as Guangdong, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Beijing. There are numerous subordinate officials, and then rank-and-file party members called Cadres.

The key to understanding this structure is that all of the real power resides in the CCP. The government officials may have responsibilities and day-to-day duties, but at every level, they are overseen by CCP officials who monitor their loyalty and have the last word on key decisions. That’s why the thrust of this article is so interesting.

For months, the CCP starting with Chairman Xi has been saying that the Zero Covid policy is necessary, that China is winning a great victory over COVID, and that the Chinese economy will be fine once the temporary pandemic measures are ended. But Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, in his capacity as head of the government silo, expressed a quite different view.

Li said that the Chinese economy was facing dire consequences as a result of its pandemic policies and that Chinese growth might fall to zero or even negative in the second quarter if these policies are not changed.

Normally, this kind of discord between the CCP and the government does not emerge. If it does, it’s usually safe to conclude that the CCP will have the last word and the government opinion will be suppressed. Yet, rumors are rife in China that Xi is losing support inside the Standing Committee.

It’s also reported that Li is leading a clique that may aim to push Xi aside at a National Party Congress this November. The removal of Xi is a long shot. He probably has the internal muscle to push his enemies aside as he has in the past. Still, the public dispute is extraordinary.

Regardless of who wins the political struggle, it seems clear that Li is correct about the Chinese economy. It is doing poorly. Even the CCP can’t wish that reality away.

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