BLOG

download (38)

Biden Has Just Discovered a Short Path to World War III

I have studied nuclear warfighting since the late 1960s and lived through the 1950s when nuclear attack drills were common in elementary schools. I vividly remember the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis when, as an 11-year-old, I studied maps to see if Soviet missiles in Cuba could reach my neighborhood in New Jersey at the time.

The sources I studied in the late 1960s and 1970s were mostly written in the late 1950s by scholars including Herman Kahn, Henry Kissinger, Paul Nitze, and Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter. The scholars disagreed on certain points, but they all agreed on one fundamental point – that the most likely cause of a nuclear war would be escalation.

One side would confront the other on some geopolitical matter. The other side would retaliate or raise the stakes in some form. The original antagonist would increase the stakes further until one side or the other felt it was facing an existential crisis. At that point, it might consider launching nuclear weapons, but the non-threatened party might actually strike first in anticipation of an attack by the other.

The simple solution to this escalatory dynamic was to de-escalate. The two sides would agree to stop the escalation, take a step back and de-escalate the crisis before it went too far. Of course, not being confrontational with nuclear powers in the first place is a better policy, but de-escalation is the next best thing.

Right now, Biden is doing the opposite. He’s escalating against nuclear superpower Russia every way he can over the War in Ukraine.

The provocations and escalations by the U.S. go back to 2008 and have continued ever since. The latest is Biden’s plan to give F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.

The F-16s can carry nuclear weapons. There is only one runway in Ukraine suitable for F-16s and Russia is already bombing it.

Biden’s solution is to station the F-16s in Romania, which is a member of NATO. The planes would take off from Romania, make a brief pitstop in Ukraine, and then proceed to attack Russia.

Russia has made it clear they will attack Romania if this happens. Under Article V of the NATO treaty, an attack on Romania will be considered an attack on the United States, which could draw the U.S. directly into a war with Russia. At that point, we have two nuclear superpowers in direct combat (something that never happened from 1945 until today).

From there we are one short step from nuclear annihilation. I already have my own power grid, farm and freshwater wells. I’ve begun construction of a fallout shelter. How about you?

Corporate leaders and institutional fiduciaries looking to incorporate state of the art predictive analytics to their risk mitigation and strategic analysis should click the link to learn more about Raven Predictive Analytics®.

OUR MISSION

Raven Predictive Analytics®, a patent-pending enterprise software as a service (SaaS), disrupts existing predictive analytics by more accurately modeling capital markets using complex systems, augmented intelligence, and team science.

Presented in a streamlined and personalized data center, Raven Predictive Analytics®; will revolutionize the way corporate risk managers and institutional investors read the market.