Battlefield Confusion in Ukraine. Related to The Intelligence Leaks?

The damage from the intelligence leak regarding Ukrainian military capabilities (described in the article above) is already having real-world repercussions.

Ukraine has long been planning a massive “spring offensive” to begin this month or next in Eastern Ukraine. It’s designed to break through Russian defensive positions and push them back toward Russia itself. This offensive would liberate large portions of the Donbas that Russia has taken since the initial invasion in February 2022.

The problem is that the intelligence leaks make it clear that Ukraine is not up to the task as reported in this article. Based on the intelligence leaks, the Russians now know the approximate composition of the Ukrainian forces, including the numbers of tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery pieces, and the size of infantry units. The Russians also know that Ukraine is critically short of ammunition (especially artillery shells and anti-aircraft missiles) and that the U.S. and EU cannot possibly supply the Ukrainians with what they need without reducing their own stockpiles to critically low levels.

The Russians have also learned that the Ukrainians are desperate to get S-300 anti-aircraft missiles, but that’s almost impossible because the S-300 is made by Russia, which will clearly not be a source of supply for Ukraine. The Ukrainians will also not be getting the F-16 fighter jets they need anytime soon.

(The U.S. has not yet agreed to supply the F-16s. Even if we did, it takes at least six months and more likely a full year to train pilots. The war is likely to be won by Russia before the F-16s can appear, if they ever do).

This has now raised the issue of whether Ukraine should go ahead with the planned offensive at all, given that the Russians know so much about their capabilities and that those capabilities are not impressive at all.

The alternative for Ukraine is simple to preserve its troops and weapons in a defensive line and wait for Russia to attack them. Yet, the Russians will be in no hurry to do that. Once Russia consolidates its own positions, it will be able to pound Ukrainian lines with artillery, bombs, and cruise missiles and wear them down in a classic war of attrition not unlike World War I.

There are no good ways out for Ukraine except peace talks leading to a significant loss of territory. Of course, Ukraine would have done much better to make a few concessions in early 2022 and avoid the war entirely. It’s too late for that. Ukraine will end up as one more example of how much a country stands to lose when they trust Joe Biden.

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