Posts by James G. Rickards

Major multilateral financial institutions and central banks have the worst forecasting track records in the financial world. The Federal Reserve, ECB, and the IMF are among the worst, but other government-backed institutions aren’t much better. There are reasons for this. Governments will never admit a recession is coming even when it’s staring them in the…

Last year, the Congress led by Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer (with a big assist from Mitch McConnell) passed a huge spending program (misnamed the Inflation Reduction Act), which included funding for 87,000 new IRS enforcement agents. Interestingly, just days after the law passed, the IRS issued an online disclosure that IRS agents will be…

The changes in Washington DC as a result of Republicans taking control of the House of Representatives are not merely political; they will have an enormous impact on investors and the portfolio allocation choices they make. Exhibit A is covered in this story. The House Republicans have announced that they are setting up a new select…

One of the most famous Congressional committee investigations in history was conducted over the course of 1975-1976 under the chairmanship of Senator Frank Church (D-ID). It was formally called the Select Committee to Study Governmental Operations with Respect to Intelligence Activities. But it was known informally as the Church Committee. It was genuinely bipartisan (something…

The past two years have been hard for Americans who believe in traditional values. If you consider George Washington to be a great military leader and president, there’s someone ready to accuse him of white privilege. If you consider Teddy Roosevelt a model president, builder of the Panama Canal, and founder of the National Park…

No doubt you followed the drama and the theatrics around the election of a Speaker of the House of Representatives this past weekend. After 14 failed attempts, Republican Kevin McCarthy was finally elected Speaker on the 15th ballot, the most since 1859. The numbers behind the drama were straightforward. The Republicans have a 222 to 212…

We’ve written frequently about the false science of climate change and the extreme climate alarmism embraced by global elites and their flunky pseudo-scientist collaborators. For the record, let’s look at some of the lies and misrepresentations used by the climate alarmists. The planet did undergo a mild warming spell from 1985 to 1999 (not unusual)…

The year 2023 is off to a good start as far as stock market investors are concerned. For the week of January 3 – 6, 2023, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both closed up 1.5%, and the NASDAQ rose 1.1%. Much of those gains occurred on Friday, January 6 when the Dow rose 700…

Since the mid-1990s, liberals and many free-market conservatives have maintained the view that China’s human rights abuses should be ignored because the Chinese economy was evolving in the direction of U.S.-style capitalism. The view was that the Chinese just “needed time” to catch up, but sooner than later they would be “just like us.” This…

The China reopening story is the most powerful market narrative going on today. At least for now, it’s more powerful than any Fed analysis, the prospect of a recession, and even lower energy prices in terms of what’s driving investor behavior. Of course, the key word is “narrative.” It’s a powerful story but that does…