A Thoughtful Foreign Observer Believes Trump Can Win a Second Term

The 2024 presidential election campaign is now in full swing, like it or not (I don’t, but we’ll take it as it comes). Biden’s team is actively trashing “MAGA Republicans” while Trump’s team is pointing out the economic consequences of Biden’s open borders policy and the stupidity of banning gas stoves. Bring it on.

Meanwhile, it’s refreshing to read the more detached views of Niall Ferguson, a Scottish economist and prolific author (now a naturalized American citizen). Ferguson is conservative but not a Trump acolyte. He’s not a Biden supporter, either. He brings a good measure of objectivity to the debate.

In this article, Ferguson sees a good possibility that Trump could win the election in 2024 despite the smug assurance of Biden’s victory shared by Democrat strategists and TV pundits. Ferguson points to a long list of leaders around the world who faced worse legal problems than Trump (Lula in Brazil, Netanyahu in Israel, Berlusconi in Italy, and many others) yet went on to political victories despite imprisonment, impeachment, and investigation.

Trump’s frontrunner status on the Republican side is clear. Biden’s mental impairment and record of blunders and failed policies are equally clear. All it will take is a recession in 2023 (which is already on the way) to bury Biden’s chances.

The article takes a close look at these and other issues. Ferguson offers the standard disclaimer that a week is a lifetime in politics, and much can change. True enough. But any investor ruling out a Trump comeback in his or her asset allocations may be in for a surprise.

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