Get Ready for Another War in the Middle East. It’s Israel V. Hezbollah

Intelligence from a variety of sources points to a wider war in the Middle East. The current war is in the south of Israel in Gaza. That fight is with the Hamas terrorists.

The new war will involve Hezbollah and will be fought in the north of Israel. Additional fighting will take place in southern Lebanon, the area around the northern West Bank, the Golan Heights, and around the Sea of Galilee.

I’ve been in or near all of those places. It’s amazing how compact and close together it all is. It’s only about 40 miles from the Israeli border to Damascus and another 40 miles from the Golan Heights to the Mediterranean Sea. It only takes minutes from takeoff to do a bombing run or a missile attack and perhaps only a day or two to move tank battalions, depending on resistance.

The best information is that Hezbollah has devised ways to avoid Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system, most likely through the use of drones. Hezbollah has long had 10,000 or more missiles, mostly supplied by Iran.

In the past, Israel could rely on its Iron Dome to protect most major cities and many settlements. That defense has now proved inadequate, and Hezbollah is systematically attacking Israeli bases, radars, intelligence collections facilities, and other defense system components.

Now, the attacks are spreading to include Israeli settlements in the West Bank and Galilee. These attacks have three effects: they break down Israeli military and intelligence systems, terrorize the civilian population, and handicap Israel’s ability to conduct air attacks on Syria or Lebanon. Iron Dome is being referred to in the region as Iron Done.

Obviously, this state of affairs cannot be allowed to continue. Israel’s recourse is to stop playing defense and go on offense. That means massive air strikes on Lebanon and Syria, even at the cost of missile attacks on Israel. The Israelis might be able to scrounge up some Patriot anti-missile systems from the U.S., but there are very few left because they’ve been wasted in Ukraine.

Air defense is the critical flip side of air superiority. A war in the north is likely because Israel must go on offense to avoid being left without defense. Markets are not prepared for this wider war, but it is coming soon.

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