Trump Wins a Two-Person Race. He Wins Bigger with Third Parties Involved.

Trump is ahead in the polls, a situation that he is not exactly accustomed to. He won in 2016 even though the polls showed him losing. He never led in a national poll in 2020.

Of course, polls are not foolproof – much depends on the size and composition of the sample and any biases of the polling firm. Things can always change between the polls and the election and probably will. That said, Trump is not just leading in some polls; he’s leading in all of them.

Using the Real Clear Politics data (an average of many polls), Trump is ahead in the national poll by 46.6% for Trump to 44.9% for Biden. When we look at the 7 battleground states (a more relevant measure since the presidential election is won at the state level), Trump has the following leads measured in percentage points: Wisconsin +1.2, Arizona +5.4, Georgia +5.0, Michigan +3.7, Pennsylvania +1.0, North Carolina +5.0 and Nevada +4.3.

The leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Nevada are not just comfortable; they’re huge (you may recall most recent elections in swing states have been decided by less than 1%). The Wisconsin and Pennsylvania leads are within a margin of error, but Trump was trailing in both until recently so they’re trending his way.

Trump also leads in the betting odds by 45.4 for Trump and 37.2 for Biden. This is all landslide territory.

OK, but what about third parties? Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein are all mounting strong third-party runs, and the No Labels third party may yet join the fray. What happens then?

It’s more bad news for Biden, according to this article.

Jill Stein has solid ballot access because her Green Party has been seeking ballot access for years. RFK, Jr. is on the ballot in New Hampshire, Hawaii, Utah, and Nevada and expects to be on in Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and South Carolina soon. That may not seem like a lot, but it covers four of the seven battleground states that will decide the election.

Cornel West is on the ballot in Oregon, Utah, and South Carolina and is targeting Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Arizona. That list also covers four of the seven battlegrounds.

Here’s the worst news for Biden: Polls show the third-party candidates taking more votes from Biden than Trump in a world where Biden is already behind. The election is still 221 days away, but events are definitely breaking Trump’s way.

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