The Threat Of Nuclear War Keeps Growing In Ukraine. Get Ready.

The U.S. along with its NATO allies and Russia keep moving down the path to nuclear war in Ukraine. That’s not speculation or fearmongering.

The actions of the two sides conform to the escalation scenario that every expert on nuclear warfighting has warned about since the 1950s. The attack on Russian bases by Ukrainian drones described in this article is just the latest provocation.

Let’s be clear. War is brutal and unpredictable.

Russia invaded Ukraine. So, if the Ukrainians choose to attack inside Russia, that’s their choice.

No one claims that Russian soil is off-limits to attack. The problem is that Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. Ukraine is backed by the U.S., which has the second-largest nuclear arsenal in the world.

This is not just another war in that sense. It is a direct confrontation between two nuclear powers in which Ukraine itself is not the dominant player.

I’ve studied nuclear warfighting since the late 1960s. The work I learned from was mostly written in the late 1950s and early 1960s by leading scholars such as Herman Kahn, Henry Kissinger, Albert Wohlstetter and Paul Nitze. Despite some differences in approach, all of the experts agreed on one thing – nuclear war would not come out of the blue with one power suddenly deciding to launch a nuclear strike.

Instead, it would come through a series of escalatory steps. Neither side would intend a nuclear war, but one side would provoke or threaten the other.

The non-provoking side would respond with some action in retaliation. The first actor would respond by raising the stakes and taking some even more aggressive action.

Back and forth it would go with the two sides raising the stakes and increasing tensions. Eventually, one side would feel that its existence as a state was in danger. At that point, it might consider using nuclear weapons as a way out. The other side would strike first (always an advantage in a nuclear exchange) before the more threatened side could launch its own first strike.

The U.S. and Russia are going down this dangerous path. Before the Russian invasion, the U.S. spent fourteen years provoking Russia by calling for Ukrainian membership in NATO, staging an anti-Russian coup in 2014, and reneging on the Minsk Accords. Russia understands the escalatory dynamic, but has no choice but to engage in it.

The U.S. seems to be run by warmongers and amateurs like Victoria Nuland, Tony Blinken, Jake Sullivan, Susan Rice and others who treat threats and escalation as routine tactics without understanding that the possibility of a nuclear war is all too real. Let’s hope the U.S. comes to its senses and de-escalates before nuclear weapons are used. Right now the danger is far too close for comfort.

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