Can One Traveler Bring The U.S. And China To The Brink Of World War III?

Political and military tension in the Western Pacific and off the coast of China is nothing new. There were regular crises in the 1950s after Chiang Kai-Shek retreated to Taiwan with his nationalist army and his government structure.

The threats then were about the small Taiwanese-controlled islands of Quemoy and Matsu located immediately off the mainland Chinese coast. In recent years, the confrontations have involved fishing and mineral rights in the South China Sea and Chinese efforts to build new islands by dredging around coral reefs.

The U.S. routinely sends Navy vessels through the South China Sea near Taiwan on what it calls Freedom of Navigation missions (recognized by international maritime law but opposed by China). All of these standoffs pose some risk of escalation. Still, both sides typically stop short of direct military action because of the obvious risk of triggering something that could turn into World War III.

Now, that delicate balance may be upset by the octogenarian Nancy Pelosi, who departed yesterday for a political visit to Asia. Her schedule does not formally show a stop in Taiwan, but that prospect has been heavily leaked by her staff and may well happen.

As described in this article, the Chinese are enraged that such a high-ranking U.S. official (Pelosi is third in line for the presidency after Kamala Harris) would visit Taiwan.

U.S. protestations that Pelosi is in the legislative branch and is not responsible for executive branch functions such as diplomacy and the military mean nothing to the Chinese. They don’t believe that such distinctions exist. Their view is that Pelosi’s visit must have White House support and that this visit is a deliberate and dangerous provocation.

The Chinese have responded with threats of severe reactions. These have not been specified but could include grounding her plane, forcing it to land in mainland China or even shooting it down. Both the U.S. and China are on high military alert in the region.

Congressional junkets in August are customary. Members of Congress usually find some official business to do on the Riviera or the Greek Islands or some such locale where you can work on your tan or try the discos. Pelosi has chosen to fly into one of the most politically and militarily volatile spots on earth for no good reason.

One can be pro-Taiwan and still not be reckless. We’ll see if military action results. If so, it will be all Pelosi’s fault.

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