This Is How A Nuclear War Will Begin. The First Steps Are Already Taken.

Nuclear war-fighting is not a topic that has been much discussed in the past thirty-five years since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. It’s certainly not a topic that non-experts want to think about because the implications are both horrific and existential. Still, no topic is more critical.

The theories around nuclear warfighting were mostly developed in the 1950s by scholars such as Herman Kahn, Henry Kissinger, and Albert Wohlstetter. I read their work beginning in the late 1960s as part of my studies in international relations and I continued to study the topic through graduate school and beyond.

Scholarly approaches varied in some respects related to doctrines of counter-force (aiming missiles at missiles), counter-value (aiming missiles at cities), first-strike, second-strike, and mutual assured destruction. But, there’s one rule they all agreed on: Don’t go there.

What this means is that a nuclear war will never begin out of the blue with one side thinking it’s worth a try. Instead, nuclear war will be the end of a process of escalation.

One side would make an aggressive move of some type. The other side would respond with a more forceful move. This would be answered by an even stronger response and so on as the two sides escalated the attacks. Eventually, one side would have its back to the wall and feel it had no choice but to use nuclear weapons. Ironically, in that circumstance, the side that was not under duress might actually strike with nuclear weapons first in anticipation of the other side launching.

That game-theoretic outcome is because the side that makes the first strike is almost always better off although a second strike can be equally devastating. Because of the War in Ukraine, the world is closer to this apocalyptic state than at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.

Russia has already warned that it may use tactical nuclear weapons. The U.S. and NATO seem to believe Russia is bluffing and it is, therefore, safe to continue escalating.

The latest provocation is covered in this article. There are credible reports that British special forces are in Ukraine instructing the Ukrainians in sabotage and other special operations tactics. Similar reports are circulating about U.S. and French special forces in Ukraine.

The U.S., UK, and France are all members of NATO. If any of those troops are killed or confront Russian forces, it could be viewed as a war between Russia and NATO, which is tantamount to World War III. Russia is investigating the claims.

By itself, these special forces may seem like a small escalation. But, it’s exactly the kind of action that can escalate into something far worse.

The White House would do well to study the same work that I learned in 1969. Instead, it seems like no one is home at the White House. The escalation continues. And so does the march towards nuclear war.

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